Wednesday, October 7, 2009

這地球，天天轉，奇妙事不斷有!!


有聽過以下的故事嗎？世事如棋，原來反轉全局，所經時光不過是一個甲子！

回到六十年前的世界，列強環伺，那時,「只有共產主義才能救中國」；四十年後，柏林圍牆倒塌，引發一場「蘇東波」-- 蘇聯解體，東歐變天 -- 環顧全球，只有中國能救共產主義....

....故事還未完結呢！一個甲子後最新推出的，是個逗人的「搞笑版」：金融海嘯剛過，全球驚魂甫定，瞬間出現以中美爲主軸的G２格局。在其中，身陷泥沼的美國，自身難保；倒是中國「水頭」充足，實力雄厚，不單英雄救「美」，今番更救了資本主義；只是包括美國在內的傳統資本主資陣營，最終恐怕只有社會主義才救得了?!

當真!? 這話怎說？

公元２００１年，世界發生了一件改變人類歷史的大事。不，不是「９１１」；那無疑是件大事，但西方社會與伊斯蘭世界的「文明衝突」，由來已久，那天爆發的驚天大災難對此並未帶來甚麼改變。至於美國以此爲借口，大舉出兵中東，以致泥足深陷，也不過是一場「一子錯」的軍事舉措，９１１並非出兵的真正原因！

你我今天一同見證世界歷史改弦易轍的大事，是「１２１１」, ２００１年１２月１１日 -- 經過十五年一波三折的漫長磋商中國正式加入「世貿」的日子。繼絲綢之路之後，這天，再次透過商貿，爲環球社會打開了資訊年代東西方全方位互通互動的空間，對人類文明，影响深遠。就是這短短八年回顧起來，已覺其震撼，以後發展，史家自有詳盡分析。但相信日後收入史冊的論述，必少不了以下兩項令論者莞爾而笑的「歴史的意外」！

其一，金融海嘯一役，以美國爲首歷來高舉自由經濟的西方國家，對內相繼接管「大得不能倒閉」的銀行和企業，無限補貼；對外徵收保護性關稅；政客的取態由Free Trade變爲Fair Trade。種種反應，與一直以來發展中國家備受批評的做法，完全沒有分別。而加入世貿後成爲經濟全球化大贏家的中國，倒成了國際間最熱衷捍衛自由市場的國家。

其二，經濟危機過後，全球社會發展的主要動力，毫無疑問是來自在全球化經濟中「站起來」的各國中產專業人士 -- 在中國和印度等發展中國家，這階層正在快速冒起 -- 一方面，這將促使國際社會逐漸邁向全球一體化的「中產階層核心價值」；但另一方面，這支生力軍在各國本身土壤中得到的「軟性養份」，由於文化及社會條件不同，也各具迥異的特色。在中國及鄰近曾受儒家思想薰陶的國家，早已深入民間的孔孟價值觀，將繼續發揮其源遠流長的影响力；而源自希羅文明的西方社會，經過金融海嘯的洗禮，對放任「篤本市場主義」（Market Fundamentalism)所帶來的嚴峻問題不再盲目接受，加上IT科技給個人及社群注入的無比動力 -- 作個大胆推斷 -- 一種在Web2.0生態中孕育出來的「新社會主義」文化，勢將出現，成為引導歐美社會在全球化世界中重新定位的座標。

-- 謹以此文紀念甲子國慶 --

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Friday, October 2, 2009

Don't blame it on Obama, America!!


No surprise. Despite President Obama making a personal appearance to speak at the IOC, America lost her bid to host the 2016 Olympics.

No surprise. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil won.

No surprise -- except perhaps for Americans, Democrats or Republicans -- Chicago was first to be eliminated ; followed by Tokyo; followed by Madrid.

(No surprise. The news was already twittering around the globe even before it appeared on CNN, BBC or any other major world news channels.)

No, no, no, no.... Americans might live in a world in which "Celebrity is the name of the Games", as suggested by the title of this Washington Post report. Americans might be accustomed to putting on big events and became good at it, as expressed by Obama in his speech to the IOC membership. Unfortunately, or fortunately, this is not how the score of the games is taken. Bring all the celebrities to the world stage; this time it wouldn't have made a difference.

The world has changed. (Americans had better come to terms with it.) The 21st Century has finally arrived, ushered in (belatedly) by momentous events one after another in the year 2008: the fall of Lehman Brothers and with it the near-meltdown of the world economy, the ignominious conclusion of the Bush Administration and the total defeat of the Republicans in the U.S. Presidential Election that followed, and the Beijing Olympics; to name a few.

As a result, not only are the rules of the games changed; we might well be watching totally different games altogether.

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